The carbon tax legislation will go before the parliament next week. This is it. Will it get through, however? How certain is it that the independents will go for it?
Wilkie is a former green who supports the tax in principle. He’ll probably back it, although could pull the plug before it’s introduced (if he doesn’t get his way on his pokies plan, and chucks a tantrum).
Oakeshott? I imagine he too will back it, despite the fact his electorate of Lyne is pretty angry with him over his decision to back Gillard. Don’t hold out hope that he’ll come through for us.
Of the cross-benchers backing the government, Windsor is our best chance. Like Oakeshott, his electorate is none too happy with him, and it is understood he opposed the tax being put on petrol. Still, a slim chance that he’ll vote it down.
What about Adam Bandt? Maybe he’ll want to be a rebel. Or not. Probably not.
Katter? Too bad his vote won’t make much of a difference.
The best chance for the carbon tax to be shot down however, is someone crossing the floor. There are skeptics within labor’s ranks however, will they have the guts to do what is right. Then again, Malcolm Turnbull is just as likely to support the damn thing.
Bolt’s suggesting that they might dump Gillard before then so it doesn’t have to come to this. Maybe, if Gillard won’t resign, certain labor figures will vote down the tax, effectively ending her leadership. It’ll be like an assassination without anyone getting their hands dirty, a bloodless coup.