Guardian premeditates IPCC report and gets it wrong

The left-leaning UK newspaper, The Guardian is trying to spruik the climate change-extreme weather link. 

Climate change is likely to cause more storms, floods, droughts, heatwaves and other extreme weather events, according to the most authoritative review yet of the effects of global warming.

The final details are being fought over by governments, as the “summary for policymakers” of the report has to be agreed in full by every nation that chooses to be involved. But the conclusions are expected to be that emissions from human activities are increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. In particular, there are likely to be many more heatwaves, droughts and changes in rainfall patterns.

It is stated with certainty that the IPCC report determines that extreme weather events will increase, but then admits that this is what they are “expecting” them to come up with. Also, I find it concerning that they don’t find it strange that governments will be agreeing to a scientific report “in full” before it is published, giving it the tick-of-approval.

Part of the IPCC report was leaked several days ago to the BBC. There was no need for The Guardian to premeditate its results, which fail to support its “expected” version of events.

But rather than bolster claims of a climate change link, the scientific review prepared by the world’s leading climate scientists for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights the level of uncertainty. After a week of debate, the IPCC will tonight release a summary of the report in Kampala, Uganda, as a prelude to the year’s biggest climate change conference, being held in Durban, South Africa.

While the human and financial toll of extreme weather events has certainly risen, the cause has been mostly due to increased human settlement rather than worse weather.

There is only “low confidence” that tropical cyclones have become more frequent, “limited to medium evidence available” to assess whether climatic factors have changed the frequency of floods, and “low confidence” on a global scale even on whether the frequency has risen or fallen.

According to the BBC, the draft report said while it was “likely” that anthropogenic influences were behind the changes in cold days and warm days, there was only “medium confidence” that they were behind changes in extreme rainfall events, and “low confidence” in attributing any changes in tropical cyclone activity to greenhouse gas emissions or anything else humanity had done.

The draft report says “uncertainty in the sign of projected changes in climate extremes over the coming two to three decades is relatively large because climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability”.

When the notoriously alarmist IPCC is saying that the link with natural disasters is less clear, even left-wing publications such as The Guardian should take notice.

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About Climate Nonconformist

Hi, I'm the climatenonconformist (not my real name), and I am a global warming skeptic, among the few in generation Y. With Australia facing the prospect of a carbon tax, we need to be asking the simple question; where is the evidence that our emissions are causing any dangerous warming?
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2 Responses to Guardian premeditates IPCC report and gets it wrong

  1. The report in The Australian Nov 18, 2011 is not so encouraging that we have dodged the bullet:
    ( http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/review-fails-to-support-climate-change-link/story-e6frg6xf-1226198360121 )

    “The draft IPPC summary said if the century progressed without restraints on greenhouse gas emissions, their impacts would come to dominate. It said it was “very likely” that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells, including heatwaves, would continue to increase over most land areas.”

    “It was ‘likely’ that the frequency of high-rainfall events would increase and mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed was likely to increase.”

    But we can live in hope this is wrong… Why worry?

  2. Pingback: World twiddles its thumbs | Climate Nonconformist

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